Friday, February 28, 2014

The Cook Political Report Downgrades Walker's Reelection Chances

Well, that's interesting...

Yesterday, The Cook Political Report downgraded the race for Governor in Wisconsin from a "Likely R" to a "Lean R."

Unlike a few other such political rating systems - Cooks is the first to weigh in the impact of the 27,000 emails and Scott Walker's refusal to discuss them. Author, Charlie Cook was one who seemed to nail the anti-recall sentiment (as opposed to the pro-Walker sentiment) that carried the Governor to a win in June, 2012.

He correctly described Wisconsinites aversion to the recall process - an assessment that holds true almost two years later.

So, where Wisconsin has gone from a "Solid R" to a "Likely R" and now to a "Lean R" with 8 months left until election day - that isn't very good news for the GOP. Mary Burke is still largely unknown and a refreshing blank canvass vs. Walker's lagging jobs and corrupt staff problems.

Oy, and the emails - he just won't talk about them. Even his supporters (who desperately want to believe he has nothing to hide) are getting nervous about it.

It will be really interesting to watch the polls in how Scott Walker measures up not to Mary Burke, but to John Kasich - two guys who are very similar - but Kasich decided to expand Medicaid in Ohio and of course, Walker did not.

Their individual trajectory may be most telling as we get closer to November.